Statistical Analysis of Cricket Matches

Statistical Analysis of Cricket Matches Abstract The effect of playing home or away and many other factors, such as batting first or second, winning or losing the toss, have been hypothesised as influencing the outcome of major cricket matches. Anecdotally, it has often been noted that Subcontinental sides (India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh) tend to perform much better on the Subcontinent than away from it. In 2009, Joshi published an article in the Royal Meteorological Society Journal Weather which suggested that the prevailing weather conditions were more important to the results of the Ashes test series in Australia than were the relative strengths of the teams. In this paper, focusing on results of mens One Day International (ODI) matches involving England, I investigate the extent to which a number of factors including playing home or away (or the continent of the venue), batting or fielding first, winning or losing the toss, the mean temperature and humidity during the game, the condition of the pitch, and the strength of each teams top batting and bowling resources influence the outcome of matches. I employ a variety of Statistical techniques, and conclude that the continent of the venue does appear to be a major factor affecting the result, but winning the toss does not. In the second part of this study, I will use any significant factors to attempt to build a Binary Logistic Regression Model that will predict the chance of England winning at different stages of a game. The study also looks at using this model to consider different gambling techniques to see which would have created the most profit for past games. Introduction 1.1 Understanding the Basics of ODIs A One-Day International (ODI) is a game of cricket between two International teams. The team that wins a coin toss has the choice to either bat or bowl in the first innings. The team batting first have a maximum of 50 overs or 10 wickets to score as many runs as they can, this is more commonly known as setting a total. An over consists of 6 balls from one bowler and the following over must be 6 balls from a different bowler from the opposite end of the pitch. Each bowler is allowed a maximum of 10 overs each. The first innings will be complete when either all 300 legitimate deliveries have been bowled or all 10 wickets have been lost. The team batting second then have 50 overs and 10 wickets to score more runs than their opponents, this is referred to as chasing a total. 1.2 History of cricket formats Cricket has been a game played in England for hundreds of years, and it is believed that it may date back to 1500. However, the earliest records available are from the early 17th century. There are currently 3 popular formats of the sport played at International level and below. The longest format of the game is either called a Test Match in International cricket or a first-class match in domestic cricket. Test matches are played between two nations which have reached Test status. This is determined by the International Cricket Council (ICC). In a test match, both teams have two innings each to accumulate more runs than their opponents. Test matches have a maximum time allowance of 5 days, if the result of the game is not already decided at the end of day 5, then the match ends as a draw. Throughout history, there have been games that have lasted more than 5 days, however in recent years this has been a strict guideline. The most famous case of an extended test match was when England toured South Africa in 1939; the game was extended to the 9th day to produce a result, however when England required only 41 more runs to win, the England players had to leave the ground to catch the last ferry home and the match ended in a draw. (sahistory, 2014) First-class is a term that describes the highest level of domestic cricket played within each of the cricketing nations. Each nation has a first-class competition which must also consist of two innings each and last at least 3-days. In England, first-class cricket is a 4-day competition played between 18 counties. This was the only format of the game throughout the 17th, 18th and 19th centuries. County cricket is where all England cricketers develop their game, and Moores and Tickner (2016) say that The key to improvement is not to radically overhaul our county system. It is to embrace it. This is regarding ongoing controversy towards the argument that the English county system is at fault for Englands failures. A 2015 ar ticle written by Kevin Pietersen entitled Broken county system is damaging our national side is a key example of this, where Pietersen argues that bowlers arent quick enough and too much cricket makes county players fatigued. However, Moores and Tickner are stating that there are many talented cricketers in the county circuit, who are overlooked due to their lack of international experience, and the only way for them to gain experience is to be given a chance. They argue that the blame for Englands failures often comes through not using the top county cricketers, rather than the county system itself. The first ever official Test match was in 1877, when England narrowly lost to Australia at the Melbourne cricket ground. Then 5 years later, when England lost to Australia at home, The Sporting Times printed a mock obituary of English cricket which concluded that The body will be cremated and the ashes taken to Australia. (Lords, 2016). This was the start of the infamous Ashes series that is still contested today between the 2 nations. Limited Overs cricket was first introduced in 1951 in a small town in Kerala, India. KV Kellappan Thampuran formed the Tripunithura Cricket club before coming up with the idea of playing a one-day game. (Kerala Cricket Association, 2016). It was adopted into County Cricket in England in 1962 when the Midlands knock-out cup took place between Northamptonshire, Leicestershire, Derbyshire and Nottingham and was 65 overs per side. In 1969, there was a change in the law which allowed more sporting events to take place on a Sunday. (Miller and Tickner, 2016). This was an opening for Sunday League cricket, where counties would play a limited overs game on the Sunday following a first-class match in the week. The number of overs per side have since been reduced to 60, 50, 45 and 40. (BBC cricket, 2006). The first ODI was played on 5 January 1971 when the first 3 days of a test match between Australia and England were washed out, so a one-off 1-day game consisting of 40 8-ball overs was arranged. This game was played with white kits and a red ball. Soon after this, ODI cricket caught on and became increasingly popular towards the end of the 1970s, the World Series Cricket was organised and the 1979 season saw the start of coloured kits with a white ball and 50 6-ball overs in ODIs. This was an unpopular decision at the time as it was only done to fit in more advert breaks. (Jackson, 2014). However, these advert breaks allowed more money to come into the game to be spent on, not only player development, but players wages to make cricket a more appealing profession. Until these advert breaks came in, most cricketers would be working two jobs and now that cricket could be their main priority, there was a big increase in terms of fitness, technique and overall development of the game. ODIs have changed a lot since the 1970s; there are now fielding restrictions, powerplays and other factors that have led to scores increasing within 50 overs. In the 1980s a score of 250 in 60 overs was thought of as a good total, but whilst this study is taking place, in 2017, teams are looking to set a total of 300 in most matches. Below is a table taken from howstat.com showing the top 20 ODI scores in history. Table: Top 20 ODI team totals. Taken from howstat.com Here you can see that all the top 20 scores have been in the last 11 years, even though ODIs have been around for 46 years and ODIs in the 20th Century were often 55 or 60 overs. For this reason, when I investigate factors that influence the chance of England winning an ODI, I only take data from the 21st Century as I believe the statistics from earlier ODIs are almost irrelevant to todays game. Twenty20 (T20) cricket is the newest cricket format. Each side has just 20 overs each to score more runs than their opponents. However, the number of resources (wickets) stays the same, allowing for a more attacking style of play throughout the whole game since losing wickets is not as harmful to the team. The cricketing authorities were looking to boost the games popularity with the younger generation in response to dwindling crowds and reduced sponsorship. (Cricketnext, 2009). 1.3 Why ODIs? There are several reasons I have chosen to use ODI statistics rather than Test matches or T20s. The overall aim of the study is not only to find significant factors that influence the outcome of cricket matches, but also to use these factors to be able to predict the chance of England winning a game. I believe that Test matches end in a draw too often to build a win predictor, and Frank Duckworth (2001) said one of the great weaknesses of first class cricket is that the most usual result is a draw. This doesnt mean that the two sides have performed equally, but that the game was unfinished when time ran out. Through collecting data from cricinfo.com and taking the means of draws per country in test match history tells us that there is a 32.07% chance that a Test match will end in a draw. This could be due to defensive tactics as the game lasts much longer than other forms of cricket. Bad weather conditions can also take a whole day or more out of the match and this coupled with the m ore defensive style can make it harder to get a result. From the first ODI game up until the 19th July 2016, 33 out of 3764 games resulted in a tie, meaning that less than 1% (0.87%) of matches have been tied. This is clearly a much lower percentage than in test matches. Also, when an ODI produces this result, it is usually because the game deserves to be a tie as the two sides have performed equally rather than any other factors. The less ties result will allow me to build a win predictor more accurately. T20 is a relatively new format of cricket where teams go away from typical tactics and playing proper cricket shots and instead use a hit out or get out style of play. This means that it is much harder to predict who will win a T20 game as one good individual performance can all but win the game. For example, if one batsman scored 100 in a T20 match, even if the rest of the team only gained another 30 runs, a total of 130 could still win the game. Comparatively, in ODIs much more of a team effort is required, and a sustained performance is needed to win the game. There are also not as many patterns in T20 games, as usually, the whole 20 overs are spent attacking. Whereas ODIs require defence, patience, tactical field settings and tactical batting in terms of when to up the run rate. In an ODI series usually the better or higher ranked team will come out on top. However, in T20 matches this is much more unpredictable, and countries such as Afghanistan and the Netherlands have had succ ess in T20 format, despite the latter not being in the 2017 ICC ODI rankings (ICC 2017). 1.4 D/L Method One issue which has always been present in cricket is that bad weather conditions, especially rain, will often affect games, especially in limited overs cricket. For the first 30 minutes of delay there are no overs lost, then every 5 minutes after this there is 1 over lost per side. For an ODI to be completed there must be at least 20 overs per side played. There is usually no reserve day for a game that ends as a no result, due to tight scheduling. To minimalise the impact of weather factors that cannot be controlled, the Duckworth-Lewis (D/L) method is used to calculate the target scored for the team batting second where the rain has interrupted the game. It is a mathematical formulation that takes in to consideration how many overs and wickets remain so the game has a higher chance of ending in a result. The fundamental basis of the Duckworth/Lewis (D/L) method is that we do not correct the target by the proportion of overs lost, but by the proportion of the total run-scoring reso urces lost. (Duckworth 2001) There have been many previous attempts at creating a system to set a total so that games can be completed, including the average run rate (ARR) method and the most productive overs (MPO) method. The average run rate method was used to set a total, and it did this by taking the average number of runs scored per over x the reduced innings. The problem with ARR is that it is too simplistic, and gave an unfair advantage to the team batting second if there was rain. The most productive overs method was introduced by the Australians and it set the target to chase by reducing the total based on the number of runs scored in the most productive overs. However, this did not take in to account when the overs were lost and could result in a very unfair target. (Duckworth and Lewis 2012) As an aside, a way to solve the problems of weather affected matches could be coming in the form of indoor cricket. The first indoor match to be played was an ODI between Australia and South Africa on the 16th August 2000 (Ramaraj 2013). However, this has not caught on around the world despite the promise of a full days play. Jonty Rhodes (Grunill and Lillywhite 2005), a South Africa player in the game, said there were problems to overcome, namely the fact that players were looking up at the lights even when the ball was at head height as the lighting was not on pylons. 1.5 Initial Variables Winning the Toss The coin toss is contested between the home and away captain 30 minutes prior to the first ball being bowled. The captains will go out onto the pitch and before contesting the toss they will assess the conditions to help them make their choice of batting or bowling first. Some of the conditions they consider are also variables I have looked at in this study. In the 17th century it is believed that the winning captain also got to choose which pitch was used for the game, a job that is now left to the umpires. Hypothesis 1: Winning the toss will significantly increase the chance of winning an ODI. Batting or bowling first Upon winning the toss, the captain is left with the strategic decision between batting first or second. Some people believe that a team should bat first and produce a psychological hurdle for the second team to overcome. Other people believe that there is an advantage in batting second as the score required has already been produced. (de Silva and Swartz, 1998). Some people also believe that it is best to look at several factors before making the choice of batting or bowling first. Hypothesis 2: There will be no significant increase in the chance of winning an ODI by always batting or bowling first.       Home or Away Home team advantage is believed to be a significant factor in most, if not all sports. In a 2008 study Measurement and Interpretation of Home Advantage, Stefani says that the biggest factors believed to lead to home team advantage are travel fatigue, home team spectator support and home team familiarity. In ODI cricket, travel fatigue should not be too much of a factor as teams will usually arrive at the opposition country a week or 2 before the series. Morley and Thomas (2005) find that attendance figures at English cricket matches do not give any significant advantage to the home team. They do however state that in certain venues this may not be the case. This leaves us with home team familiarity, and I believe this factor weighs heavily in the outcome of ODI matches. The average score at a ground in England can be very different from a ground in another continent. For example, the average run rate in ODIs at the Kia Oval in London, United Kingdom is 4.84 and the average run rate in Lahore, Pakistan is 5.24. (howstat, 2017). Both grounds have been hosting ODIs since the 1970s. This means that teams must change their mindset about what is a good 1st innings total when they play away from home. Weather conditions and cricket pitches also vary in different countries and continents. There are 9 official test teams in the ICC rankings and each of these countries has a usual type of pitch. The term dead pitch is used to describe pitches that are flat and offer little help for bowlers. Dead pitches are the most common wickets that are prepared these daysà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦. the most common pitch type in ODIs. (cricketequipmentusa, 2017). These pitches are often found in Australia, South Africa and the West Indies. English pitches are usually encouraging for fast bowlers; pitches are often referred to as green tops. These pitches are also found in New Zealand and sometimes South Africa, they have a thin layer of grass which helps to produce swing and seam. Overcast and windy conditions are often present in England, which can correspondingly assist the ball to swing. Pitches on the subcontinent are often the opposite, where wickets are dry and dusty. The subcontinent is a term used to describe a large part of Asia, and includes the 4 big cricketing nations; India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. The lack of rain in the subcontinent means no green on the pitches and the dr yness creates a lot of spin and uneven bounce. This is undoubtedly the reason why subcontinent teams have produced some of the best spin bowlers and why teams like England seem to struggle when playing away there. Hypothesis 3: England perform significantly better at home than anywhere else. Hypothesis 4: England perform significantly worse in the subcontinent than anywhere else. The first section of my study will test the variables mentioned above using a three-way ANOVA table. I test for statistical significance (

How Does Text Messaging Effect Students?

The Effects of Text Messaging on English Grammar By Lisa Russell, eHow Contributor  , last updated February 15, 2013 * * * * Print this article The Effects of Text Messaging on English Grammar Debate rages among educators about the effects of text messaging on English grammar. According to an unscientific poll conducted by Edutopia. org, 50% of the 1028 respondents felt texting is harming students' writing and grammar.In the same poll 20% thought that text messaging may have some impact's student's writing but they do not think it is a major problem; 27% felt texting was not a negative influence. Other People Are Reading * How Does Text Messaging Affect the Ability to Write ; Speak in English? * Why Does Texting Affect Grammar? 1. Negative Effects * Educators weighed in on Edutopia. org about how text messaging has effected student's writing abilities: â€Å"I teach 9th and 11th grade English and regardless of the age, my students' spelling is atrocious.Texting does not and has no t helped. † Some teachers believe the abbreviations used in text messaging are assaulting written English. Middle and high school teachers report that papers are being written using poor punctuation, bad grammar and inappropriate abbreviations. Students sometimes do not realize they are using text lingo in their academic writing. 2. Positive Effects * Some educators feel that anytime you can get students to write, it is positive. Students are writing more than ever before because of texting, instant messaging and online communications.Educational researchers discovered that students are writing more and revising more. The assumption that text messaging is just writing anything, but students must edit to fashion messages into a few precise words. There are teachable moments involved with texting; teachers can use it to teach about the evolution of language from Shakespearean English to Internet English. * No Effect * A third view about the effects of text messaging on English g rammar is that there is no effect.Text messaging may be considered another language; learning a new language does not affect a student's ability to use English grammar. The same can be said of slang words on English grammar. Each generation has its own jargon and English grammar has not been changed. Students need to learn the basics in English class to know the difference between slang, texting lingo and correct English. Sponsor Read more:  The Effects of Text Messaging on English Grammar | eHow. com  http://www. ehow. com/list_5828172_effects-text-messaging-english-grammar. html#ixzz2OfFFiEIz How Does Text Messaging Effect Students? The Effects of Text Messaging on English Grammar By Lisa Russell, eHow Contributor  , last updated February 15, 2013 * * * * Print this article The Effects of Text Messaging on English Grammar Debate rages among educators about the effects of text messaging on English grammar. According to an unscientific poll conducted by Edutopia. org, 50% of the 1028 respondents felt texting is harming students' writing and grammar.In the same poll 20% thought that text messaging may have some impact's student's writing but they do not think it is a major problem; 27% felt texting was not a negative influence. Other People Are Reading * How Does Text Messaging Affect the Ability to Write ; Speak in English? * Why Does Texting Affect Grammar? 1. Negative Effects * Educators weighed in on Edutopia. org about how text messaging has effected student's writing abilities: â€Å"I teach 9th and 11th grade English and regardless of the age, my students' spelling is atrocious.Texting does not and has no t helped. † Some teachers believe the abbreviations used in text messaging are assaulting written English. Middle and high school teachers report that papers are being written using poor punctuation, bad grammar and inappropriate abbreviations. Students sometimes do not realize they are using text lingo in their academic writing. 2. Positive Effects * Some educators feel that anytime you can get students to write, it is positive. Students are writing more than ever before because of texting, instant messaging and online communications.Educational researchers discovered that students are writing more and revising more. The assumption that text messaging is just writing anything, but students must edit to fashion messages into a few precise words. There are teachable moments involved with texting; teachers can use it to teach about the evolution of language from Shakespearean English to Internet English. * No Effect * A third view about the effects of text messaging on English g rammar is that there is no effect.Text messaging may be considered another language; learning a new language does not affect a student's ability to use English grammar. The same can be said of slang words on English grammar. Each generation has its own jargon and English grammar has not been changed. Students need to learn the basics in English class to know the difference between slang, texting lingo and correct English. Sponsor Read more:  The Effects of Text Messaging on English Grammar | eHow. com  http://www. ehow. com/list_5828172_effects-text-messaging-english-grammar. html#ixzz2OfFFiEIz

Should Marijuana Be Legalized - 864 Words

Legalize Marijuana Marijuana should be legalized! Well, at least, medically speaking. Marijuana besides giving you the munchies, it also has a lot of health benefits. Now, I have not just saying this because I want to legally use marijuana for a high. Truth be told I have never tried marijuana and probably would never. I want to be in control of myself and want to feel like I have control of what goes on around me. The only reason I would use marijuana is if I had a serious health reason. Legalizing marijuana will save taxpayers’ money. By making it legal we will save the money of trying to hunt these â€Å"criminals† down and sentencing them, when they are just using it to feel normal again. I think this is sad. It shouldn’t be so hard for them. The taxpayers could be using that money for something more worthwhile such as hunting drug dealers of harder substances or giving more funding to schools and nursing homes. I read somewhere we spend over $500,000 a year on just catc hing and sentencing these people. On other drugs we only spend about $50,000. Marijuana can help patients with physical illnesses such as cancer, HIV, and AIDS, by reducing or relieving pain. Here is a study I found interesting that sheds some insight on the subject of marijuana and pain relief. â€Å"Abrams and his colleagues studied 21 chronic pain patients in the inpatient Clinical and Transitional Science Institute’s Clinical Research Center at SFGH: 10 on sustained-release morphine and 11 onShow MoreRelatedShould Marijuana Be Legalized?849 Words   |  4 Pageswhether marijuana should be legalized. Around 23 states have legalized marijuana for medical and recreational use. In the state of Illinois, medicinal use of marijuana has been passed on April 17, 2013. Since January 2014, patients are able to obtain marijuana with a doctor s recommendation. The new debate is whether marijuana should be legalized for the general public as a recreational drug. Although some believe that marijuana is harmless, and that it has beneficial medicinal uses, marij uana shouldRead MoreShould Marijuana Be Legalized?1715 Words   |  7 PagesMarijuana in Society Cannabis, formally known as marijuana is a drug obtained from the tops, stems and leaves of the hemp plant cannabis. The drug is one of the most commonly used drugs in the world. Only substances like caffeine, nicotine and alcohol are used more (â€Å"Marijuana† 1). In the U. S. where some use it to feel â€Å"high† or get an escape from reality. The drug is referred to in many ways; weed, grass, pot, and or reefer are some common names used to describe the drug (â€Å"Marijuana† 1). Like mostRead MoreShould Marijuana Be Legalized?1489 Words   |  6 Pagescannabis plant or marijuana is intended for use of a psychoactive drug or medicine. It is used for recreational or medical uses. 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In recent years, numerous states have defied federal law and legalized marijuana for both recreational and medicinal use. Arizona has legalized marijuana for medical use, but it still remains illegal to use recreationally. This is absurd, as the evidence gathered over the last few decades strongly supports the notion that it is safer than alcohol, a widely available substance. Marijuana being listed as a Schedule I drugRead MoreShould Marijuana Be Legalized? Essay1457 Words   |  6 PagesSHOULD MARIJUANA BE LEGALIZED? Marijuana is a drug that has sparked much controversy over the past decade as to whether or not it should be legalized. People once thought of marijuana as a bad, mind-altering drug which changes a person’s personality which can lead to crime and violence through selling and buying it. In the past, the majority of citizens believed that marijuana is a harmful drug that should be kept off the market and out of the hands of the public. However, a recent study conductedRead MoreShould Marijuana Be Legalized?1596 Words   |  7 Pages But what needs to be known before a user can safely and completely make the decision if trying Marijuana is a good idea? Many do not want the drug to be legalized because they claim that Cannabis is a â€Å"gateway drug†, meaning it will cause people to try harder drugs once their body builds up a resistance to Marijuana, because a stronger drug will be needed to reach a high state. This argument is often falsely related to the medical si de of the debate over legalization. It is claimed that this wouldRead MoreShould Marijuana Be Legalized?985 Words   |  4 PagesLegalize Marijuana Despite what people believe about marijuana, it hasn’t once proved to be the cause of any real issue. It makes you wonder what the reason as to why there is a war on drugs. Why is marijuana the main concern? Since the time that alcohol and tobacco became legal, people wonder why marijuana isn’t legal yet. The fact that marijuana is illegal is mainly caused by the amount of money, jobs, and pride invested in the drug war. Once the government starts anything, they stick to it. At

Facebook A Sociological Evaluation Essay - 980 Words

This paper will explore the effect Facebook has had on society. By comparing groups today to groups fifty years ago, and by looking at personal experiences, recent political events, and interactive games, I will evaluate how Facebook has affected society’s perception of groups. There is no denying that social networking is an integral part of modern society. We spend all day updating our statuses about the latest episode of True Blood, or liking our friends’ photographs from their recent trips abroad. Our language has evolved to include words like â€Å"vlogging† and â€Å"tweeting† (which mean video blogging and posting to Twitter, respectively). Our â€Å"feeds† are linked to our cell phones, so they become available at the touch of a button. Social†¦show more content†¦All of these types of groups have a tremendous impact on society. Some recent examples of the influence Facebook groups have had on the political world are the revolution in Egypt and the Occupy Wall Street movement currently taking place around the world. In an article on CNN.com, the impacts of Facebook on the Egyptian revolution are explored. Five anonymous activists in Egypt created a Facebook event for the protests, calling it â€Å"The Day of the Revolution Against Torture, Poverty, Corruption and Unemployment.† Many people were skeptical at first, questioning the fact that support was being garnered for the protest by way of a social networking website. However, despite the initial apprehension, the rebellion was successful and president Hosni Mubarak was overthrown (Sutter, 2011). Another political protest that has been largely organized on Facebook is the Occupy Wall Street movement. 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Existence of excess number of websites and applications on the internet such as facebook , whatsapp , yahoo , instragam ,etc as a means of communication have great freedom and are easily accessible , causing the generation of youngsters to be attracted towards it. These website and applications not only provide an electronic conversationRead MoreThe Culture of Narcissism.Critical Book Review Essay2284 Words   |  10 PagesChristopher Lasch as ‘cultural narcissism’, a process by which certain attributes of the pathological branch of narcissism (Bocock, 2002) become societal characteristics (Lasch, 1991). This review will be analyzing the relevance of the book within wider sociological debate. I will argue that although the book identifies a recognisable social trend it fails to deomonstrate a specific cause or reason for that trend. 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Social media engagement: it is very important to establish a direct relationship with clients on a comprehensive basis and gain an enduring competitive advantage. In this perspective it would be very much recommended to associate the consumption of the product of the ideal corporation with a comprehensive evaluation to be posted online, such as for instance on a Facebook page (where the clientRead MoreInternet Addiction And The Internet1797 Words   |  8 PagesAnother type of Internet compulsion is Internet explicit entertainment enslavement. This is men, ladies, and teenagers going ahead to grown-up sites to fulfill their sexual needs. In the article Sexual Violence in Three Pornographic Media: Toward a Sociological Explanation, they clarify that explicit sites and media use savagery in their promotions and obscene material that impacts men s dispositions and how they utilize roughness toward ladies. (Barron, Paragraph 1 and 3) The roughness depicted on